After watching today's game, I started to think: What happens with the Nationals rotation next year? Namely, what happens with the back-end of the rotation? This is all conjecture and a lot will change from now until the start of 2012, but it is an interesting thought to see how the last 2-3 spots on the rotation fill out (assuming a healthy a healthy Stras/J-Zim). And it's not like the 2011 version of the Nationals is going anywhere, so why not start to think about next year? There are a lot of options, and a lot at stake for quite a few young Nationals pitchers. Let's start with the locks for the rotation (assuming health):
#1-Strasburg-No need for explanation. If he can come back strong and stay healthy, he is a true #1.
#2-J-Zim-Asserted himself as a legitimate #2 guy this season, and has put up terrific numbers all year. 3.12 ERA with the peripherals to match, pinpoint control, and the ability go pitch deep into games. The K's are down from last year, but so are the walks. Hopefully he will continue to improve next season and give the Nats 180+ strong innings.
#3-John Lannan-John just keeps on truckin'. His ERA (3.65) is a little lucky for sure, but less lucky than in years past (according to the peripherals). And Nats fans have heard it all before. Somehow Lannan keeps providing good-enough pitching, with 2011 being his best season by far. His K's and Groundballs are up, and his HR's are down. He still has to get his BB's down, but he has made great strides this season. If anything, he is a good back-end starter who can eat innings and doesn't cost very much. He is not a front-end starter however, and I think he is better served as a 4/5 starter. But with the way he has pitched this season, he certainly deserves a spot in the rotation for next season.
I would say those are the only guarantees as far as the rotation is concerned. The next two spots are very much up in the air depending on how the rest of this season and free agency shakes out. Will Rizzo continue his crusade for a #1 starter as he did this offseason? I certainly hope not. I don't want to part with any young arms (Cole/Ray) when our realistic timetable for contention isn't until 2013 anyway. Rizzo may feel the need to get a Marquis/Livan "veteran" innings-eater type. I have no problem with that as long as it's for the right price (AKA next to nothing for a year deal). But going out and getting a veteran for the sake of getting some "experience" in the rotation is not the best way to spend Lerner's money. My hope is that Rizzo doesn't need to run out and get a FA starting pitcher so the in-house young guns can get a chance to develop for the real chance for a playoff run.
I don't think Chein Ming Wang is the long term solution, but the rest of this season will be very important to see if he is worth bringing back for another year. I will be watching his starts the rest of the season, but I don't think he should be gifted a spot next year if there are better in house options. Certainly, the enigmatic Rossy D should get a chance. In very limited appearances as this season for the big league club he has done fine, but the AAA numbers look pretty bad. I would love to see him succeed, but the rest of this season is going to be a huge barometer for his future with the team. He has shown flashes, but he needs to put some strong starts together at the end of this season and prove once and for all he was worthy of that 1st round selection. I am very skeptical, but maybe he can put it together and become a serviceable back-end lefty in the rotation. It doesn't look good, but he better put it together since Rizzo couldn't part with him for Michael Bourn (which is indefensible). Gorzelanny is another option for the number 5/long relief role, but he has been nothing short of frustrating this season. I still would prefer Gorzo over an expensive/old/bad FA, but I think he is better suited to a spot start or long relief role than a guaranteed rotation spot if the Nats elect to bring him back. The intriguing names to fill out the rotation would be Peacock and Milone. Peacock has silly numbers in a bunch of different levels this year, but it remains to be seen if he has enough stuff to be a starter and not just a strong reliever. He will get probably get the chance in September, as will Milone. Milone profiles at best as a 4/5 starter long-term, so don't expect too much out of him. The Nats have a multitude of in-house options, but besides Peacock and maybe (doubtful) Detwiler are the only ones with any real upside. Rizzo will probably feel the need to get a FA pitcher, but hopefully that won't be necessary (unless cheap and short-term deals can be found) and the young guns can get a chance to put up or shut up. Hopefully Peacock and Detwiler can put it together and Rizzo can put some extra money in the draft. Finding a competent lead off hitter should be a bigger priority than starting pitching. While I enjoy Rick "the Stick" Ankiel, he ain't a leadoff hitter (or everyday regular).
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