Forget the Werth signing, Rizzo, you have been absolved. Rendon, Meyer, Goodwin, AND Purke!? Rendon was widely assumed to be the number 1 pick for the 2011 draft and dropped to 6th. Purke was a potential number 1 pick in the 2011 draft until injury concerns got in the way, and was still a favorite to be number 1 in 2012. Rizzo and the Nats thought so much of Meyer that he was considered with the 6th pick until he dropped into Rizzo's lap. Keith Law wrote that Brian Goodwin was a probable top 5 pick for 2012. So to recap, the Nats landed two number 1 overall talents, a top 5 talent, and a young pitcher with tremendous upside. This draft is unbelievable. The 2009 draft was huge with Strasburg and Storen, and the 2010 draft was equally huge with Harper, Cole, Solis and Ray all signing. But the 2011 class is ridiculous. While Purke and Rendon have some injury concerns, Goodwin has character concerns and Meyer has command concerns, that doesn't particularly matter. The Nats went way over slot to land one of the greatest draft classes (on potential) ever. The Lerners dropped a lot of money, but how much is a star hitter in FA? How much are two potential top of the rotation arms? How hard is it to find a starting CF?
Even if just two of these guys pan out, it is well worth the cost. Even though these 4 got a lot of money, it is a fraction of what they would receive on the FA market. And allow me to dream for a moment: imagine a Nationals rotation of Strasburg, J-Zimm, Cole, Purke, and Meyer/Solis/Ray. Really? That is a very, very, very optimistic rotation, but that talent and upside is hard to top. Not to overreact, but this class moves the farm system a lot closer to the Royals/Jays/Rays than the middle to back of the pack. It seems that Rizzo has convinced the Lerners that the key to winning is through the draft, and today is every bit as exciting as the last two deadlines. With a potential hard slotting system coming very soon (which is a terrible idea), this could be the last great haul for the Nats. Watching this team grow over the next few years is going to be a real treat.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Rotation Questions
After watching today's game, I started to think: What happens with the Nationals rotation next year? Namely, what happens with the back-end of the rotation? This is all conjecture and a lot will change from now until the start of 2012, but it is an interesting thought to see how the last 2-3 spots on the rotation fill out (assuming a healthy a healthy Stras/J-Zim). And it's not like the 2011 version of the Nationals is going anywhere, so why not start to think about next year? There are a lot of options, and a lot at stake for quite a few young Nationals pitchers. Let's start with the locks for the rotation (assuming health):
#1-Strasburg-No need for explanation. If he can come back strong and stay healthy, he is a true #1.
#2-J-Zim-Asserted himself as a legitimate #2 guy this season, and has put up terrific numbers all year. 3.12 ERA with the peripherals to match, pinpoint control, and the ability go pitch deep into games. The K's are down from last year, but so are the walks. Hopefully he will continue to improve next season and give the Nats 180+ strong innings.
#3-John Lannan-John just keeps on truckin'. His ERA (3.65) is a little lucky for sure, but less lucky than in years past (according to the peripherals). And Nats fans have heard it all before. Somehow Lannan keeps providing good-enough pitching, with 2011 being his best season by far. His K's and Groundballs are up, and his HR's are down. He still has to get his BB's down, but he has made great strides this season. If anything, he is a good back-end starter who can eat innings and doesn't cost very much. He is not a front-end starter however, and I think he is better served as a 4/5 starter. But with the way he has pitched this season, he certainly deserves a spot in the rotation for next season.
I would say those are the only guarantees as far as the rotation is concerned. The next two spots are very much up in the air depending on how the rest of this season and free agency shakes out. Will Rizzo continue his crusade for a #1 starter as he did this offseason? I certainly hope not. I don't want to part with any young arms (Cole/Ray) when our realistic timetable for contention isn't until 2013 anyway. Rizzo may feel the need to get a Marquis/Livan "veteran" innings-eater type. I have no problem with that as long as it's for the right price (AKA next to nothing for a year deal). But going out and getting a veteran for the sake of getting some "experience" in the rotation is not the best way to spend Lerner's money. My hope is that Rizzo doesn't need to run out and get a FA starting pitcher so the in-house young guns can get a chance to develop for the real chance for a playoff run.
I don't think Chein Ming Wang is the long term solution, but the rest of this season will be very important to see if he is worth bringing back for another year. I will be watching his starts the rest of the season, but I don't think he should be gifted a spot next year if there are better in house options. Certainly, the enigmatic Rossy D should get a chance. In very limited appearances as this season for the big league club he has done fine, but the AAA numbers look pretty bad. I would love to see him succeed, but the rest of this season is going to be a huge barometer for his future with the team. He has shown flashes, but he needs to put some strong starts together at the end of this season and prove once and for all he was worthy of that 1st round selection. I am very skeptical, but maybe he can put it together and become a serviceable back-end lefty in the rotation. It doesn't look good, but he better put it together since Rizzo couldn't part with him for Michael Bourn (which is indefensible). Gorzelanny is another option for the number 5/long relief role, but he has been nothing short of frustrating this season. I still would prefer Gorzo over an expensive/old/bad FA, but I think he is better suited to a spot start or long relief role than a guaranteed rotation spot if the Nats elect to bring him back. The intriguing names to fill out the rotation would be Peacock and Milone. Peacock has silly numbers in a bunch of different levels this year, but it remains to be seen if he has enough stuff to be a starter and not just a strong reliever. He will get probably get the chance in September, as will Milone. Milone profiles at best as a 4/5 starter long-term, so don't expect too much out of him. The Nats have a multitude of in-house options, but besides Peacock and maybe (doubtful) Detwiler are the only ones with any real upside. Rizzo will probably feel the need to get a FA pitcher, but hopefully that won't be necessary (unless cheap and short-term deals can be found) and the young guns can get a chance to put up or shut up. Hopefully Peacock and Detwiler can put it together and Rizzo can put some extra money in the draft. Finding a competent lead off hitter should be a bigger priority than starting pitching. While I enjoy Rick "the Stick" Ankiel, he ain't a leadoff hitter (or everyday regular).
#1-Strasburg-No need for explanation. If he can come back strong and stay healthy, he is a true #1.
#2-J-Zim-Asserted himself as a legitimate #2 guy this season, and has put up terrific numbers all year. 3.12 ERA with the peripherals to match, pinpoint control, and the ability go pitch deep into games. The K's are down from last year, but so are the walks. Hopefully he will continue to improve next season and give the Nats 180+ strong innings.
#3-John Lannan-John just keeps on truckin'. His ERA (3.65) is a little lucky for sure, but less lucky than in years past (according to the peripherals). And Nats fans have heard it all before. Somehow Lannan keeps providing good-enough pitching, with 2011 being his best season by far. His K's and Groundballs are up, and his HR's are down. He still has to get his BB's down, but he has made great strides this season. If anything, he is a good back-end starter who can eat innings and doesn't cost very much. He is not a front-end starter however, and I think he is better served as a 4/5 starter. But with the way he has pitched this season, he certainly deserves a spot in the rotation for next season.
I would say those are the only guarantees as far as the rotation is concerned. The next two spots are very much up in the air depending on how the rest of this season and free agency shakes out. Will Rizzo continue his crusade for a #1 starter as he did this offseason? I certainly hope not. I don't want to part with any young arms (Cole/Ray) when our realistic timetable for contention isn't until 2013 anyway. Rizzo may feel the need to get a Marquis/Livan "veteran" innings-eater type. I have no problem with that as long as it's for the right price (AKA next to nothing for a year deal). But going out and getting a veteran for the sake of getting some "experience" in the rotation is not the best way to spend Lerner's money. My hope is that Rizzo doesn't need to run out and get a FA starting pitcher so the in-house young guns can get a chance to develop for the real chance for a playoff run.
I don't think Chein Ming Wang is the long term solution, but the rest of this season will be very important to see if he is worth bringing back for another year. I will be watching his starts the rest of the season, but I don't think he should be gifted a spot next year if there are better in house options. Certainly, the enigmatic Rossy D should get a chance. In very limited appearances as this season for the big league club he has done fine, but the AAA numbers look pretty bad. I would love to see him succeed, but the rest of this season is going to be a huge barometer for his future with the team. He has shown flashes, but he needs to put some strong starts together at the end of this season and prove once and for all he was worthy of that 1st round selection. I am very skeptical, but maybe he can put it together and become a serviceable back-end lefty in the rotation. It doesn't look good, but he better put it together since Rizzo couldn't part with him for Michael Bourn (which is indefensible). Gorzelanny is another option for the number 5/long relief role, but he has been nothing short of frustrating this season. I still would prefer Gorzo over an expensive/old/bad FA, but I think he is better suited to a spot start or long relief role than a guaranteed rotation spot if the Nats elect to bring him back. The intriguing names to fill out the rotation would be Peacock and Milone. Peacock has silly numbers in a bunch of different levels this year, but it remains to be seen if he has enough stuff to be a starter and not just a strong reliever. He will get probably get the chance in September, as will Milone. Milone profiles at best as a 4/5 starter long-term, so don't expect too much out of him. The Nats have a multitude of in-house options, but besides Peacock and maybe (doubtful) Detwiler are the only ones with any real upside. Rizzo will probably feel the need to get a FA pitcher, but hopefully that won't be necessary (unless cheap and short-term deals can be found) and the young guns can get a chance to put up or shut up. Hopefully Peacock and Detwiler can put it together and Rizzo can put some extra money in the draft. Finding a competent lead off hitter should be a bigger priority than starting pitching. While I enjoy Rick "the Stick" Ankiel, he ain't a leadoff hitter (or everyday regular).
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Trade Deadline Review
Okay, so it looks like I missed a potential center fielder earlier, that being Denard Span. But before we tackle the CF issue, I wanted to look at our actual trades.
First, the Gomes deal. This was a weird deal to say the least. It could end up being a huge win for us IF we offer him arbitration, AND some team is dumb enough to sign him (meaning we get a pick). I have a hard time believing some other team would be dumb enough to sign him and give away the pick, but who knows? I do know that when Jim Bowden calls it "a great move," I get concerned. It's a risky move which could turn out to be a great one if we catch a few breaks.
As far as the Marquis and Hairston deals go, those are clear wins for the Nationals. Not only did Rizzo free up some space to hopefully sign Goodwin/Purke, but he also got decent prospects in return. The two prospects don't profile as stars, but cheap, useful pieces that every team needs. These were not sexy deals, but terrific returns for older veterans that really have no use for the future of this team.
Now for the deals The Nats did not make. The non-trade for Rasmus has already been covered in detail, but that was more of a personal dream, so I will move on. If this article is true (http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110802&content_id=22655306¬ebook_id=22657066&vkey=notebook_was&c_id=was), then the Nats messed up. Even if it isn't. The return the Astros got for Bourn was really, really, not good by all accounts. No major league ready talent (besides Schaefer, who is not better than Bernadina and more injury prone to boot), and 3 meh prospects for a great defensive CF yet to hit FA? For all the posturing the Astros did to say that Bourn would take a sizable return in a trade, Ed Wade lied. The Nationals could have easily surpassed the deal the Braves made, or at the very least, pushed them to improve their offer by throwing in Mike Minor or one of their top 4 pitching prospects. Judging by this trade, Rizzo could have dealt Bernadina (better than Schaefer), Detwiler, and a few potential bullpen arms. This doesn't cost THAT much, as we have a lot of depth in the minors for pitching, and Bourn would solve all of our CF and leadoff issues for the time being.
Still, that was a deal that never appeared to be that close to happening. The big non-deal would have to be the Span for Storen/Lombo/Bernie deal. I understand why Rizzo passed, and I realize Drew is a fan favorite (I love him too), but isn't it common knowledge to most (clearly not the Twins) that relievers are volatile and not nearly as valuable as say, a young CF with a team friendly deal. For everyone hollering about trading Drew, remember the Ramos for Capps fleecing? Those deals would not be quite as different as you think. However, I think there is reason to be concerned with Span's concussion and to make sure he comes back healthy first. I still believe that one or both of Clip/Storen get moved this offseason, whether it is for Span/Upton. Personally, I would rather have Upton, but it's very, very difficult to pull one over the Rays front office, and it's clearly a lot easier to sneak one by the Twins.
One more non-trade. Why did Rizzo hang onto Coffey? I am not sure if he qualifies as a Type B, but there are plenty of teams that need bullpen help. Of course, Rizzo could flip him assuming he makes it through waivers, so for Coffey (and the rest of the one year vets-Nix, Ankiel, etc.) a trade could still be made.
All in all, The Nats moves that were actually made were great (although the Gomes deal could go really wrong), but there will be more to come this August/offseason, so the grade would have to be incomplete.
First, the Gomes deal. This was a weird deal to say the least. It could end up being a huge win for us IF we offer him arbitration, AND some team is dumb enough to sign him (meaning we get a pick). I have a hard time believing some other team would be dumb enough to sign him and give away the pick, but who knows? I do know that when Jim Bowden calls it "a great move," I get concerned. It's a risky move which could turn out to be a great one if we catch a few breaks.
As far as the Marquis and Hairston deals go, those are clear wins for the Nationals. Not only did Rizzo free up some space to hopefully sign Goodwin/Purke, but he also got decent prospects in return. The two prospects don't profile as stars, but cheap, useful pieces that every team needs. These were not sexy deals, but terrific returns for older veterans that really have no use for the future of this team.
Now for the deals The Nats did not make. The non-trade for Rasmus has already been covered in detail, but that was more of a personal dream, so I will move on. If this article is true (http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110802&content_id=22655306¬ebook_id=22657066&vkey=notebook_was&c_id=was), then the Nats messed up. Even if it isn't. The return the Astros got for Bourn was really, really, not good by all accounts. No major league ready talent (besides Schaefer, who is not better than Bernadina and more injury prone to boot), and 3 meh prospects for a great defensive CF yet to hit FA? For all the posturing the Astros did to say that Bourn would take a sizable return in a trade, Ed Wade lied. The Nationals could have easily surpassed the deal the Braves made, or at the very least, pushed them to improve their offer by throwing in Mike Minor or one of their top 4 pitching prospects. Judging by this trade, Rizzo could have dealt Bernadina (better than Schaefer), Detwiler, and a few potential bullpen arms. This doesn't cost THAT much, as we have a lot of depth in the minors for pitching, and Bourn would solve all of our CF and leadoff issues for the time being.
Still, that was a deal that never appeared to be that close to happening. The big non-deal would have to be the Span for Storen/Lombo/Bernie deal. I understand why Rizzo passed, and I realize Drew is a fan favorite (I love him too), but isn't it common knowledge to most (clearly not the Twins) that relievers are volatile and not nearly as valuable as say, a young CF with a team friendly deal. For everyone hollering about trading Drew, remember the Ramos for Capps fleecing? Those deals would not be quite as different as you think. However, I think there is reason to be concerned with Span's concussion and to make sure he comes back healthy first. I still believe that one or both of Clip/Storen get moved this offseason, whether it is for Span/Upton. Personally, I would rather have Upton, but it's very, very difficult to pull one over the Rays front office, and it's clearly a lot easier to sneak one by the Twins.
One more non-trade. Why did Rizzo hang onto Coffey? I am not sure if he qualifies as a Type B, but there are plenty of teams that need bullpen help. Of course, Rizzo could flip him assuming he makes it through waivers, so for Coffey (and the rest of the one year vets-Nix, Ankiel, etc.) a trade could still be made.
All in all, The Nats moves that were actually made were great (although the Gomes deal could go really wrong), but there will be more to come this August/offseason, so the grade would have to be incomplete.
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