Forget the Werth signing, Rizzo, you have been absolved. Rendon, Meyer, Goodwin, AND Purke!? Rendon was widely assumed to be the number 1 pick for the 2011 draft and dropped to 6th. Purke was a potential number 1 pick in the 2011 draft until injury concerns got in the way, and was still a favorite to be number 1 in 2012. Rizzo and the Nats thought so much of Meyer that he was considered with the 6th pick until he dropped into Rizzo's lap. Keith Law wrote that Brian Goodwin was a probable top 5 pick for 2012. So to recap, the Nats landed two number 1 overall talents, a top 5 talent, and a young pitcher with tremendous upside. This draft is unbelievable. The 2009 draft was huge with Strasburg and Storen, and the 2010 draft was equally huge with Harper, Cole, Solis and Ray all signing. But the 2011 class is ridiculous. While Purke and Rendon have some injury concerns, Goodwin has character concerns and Meyer has command concerns, that doesn't particularly matter. The Nats went way over slot to land one of the greatest draft classes (on potential) ever. The Lerners dropped a lot of money, but how much is a star hitter in FA? How much are two potential top of the rotation arms? How hard is it to find a starting CF?
Even if just two of these guys pan out, it is well worth the cost. Even though these 4 got a lot of money, it is a fraction of what they would receive on the FA market. And allow me to dream for a moment: imagine a Nationals rotation of Strasburg, J-Zimm, Cole, Purke, and Meyer/Solis/Ray. Really? That is a very, very, very optimistic rotation, but that talent and upside is hard to top. Not to overreact, but this class moves the farm system a lot closer to the Royals/Jays/Rays than the middle to back of the pack. It seems that Rizzo has convinced the Lerners that the key to winning is through the draft, and today is every bit as exciting as the last two deadlines. With a potential hard slotting system coming very soon (which is a terrible idea), this could be the last great haul for the Nats. Watching this team grow over the next few years is going to be a real treat.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Rotation Questions
After watching today's game, I started to think: What happens with the Nationals rotation next year? Namely, what happens with the back-end of the rotation? This is all conjecture and a lot will change from now until the start of 2012, but it is an interesting thought to see how the last 2-3 spots on the rotation fill out (assuming a healthy a healthy Stras/J-Zim). And it's not like the 2011 version of the Nationals is going anywhere, so why not start to think about next year? There are a lot of options, and a lot at stake for quite a few young Nationals pitchers. Let's start with the locks for the rotation (assuming health):
#1-Strasburg-No need for explanation. If he can come back strong and stay healthy, he is a true #1.
#2-J-Zim-Asserted himself as a legitimate #2 guy this season, and has put up terrific numbers all year. 3.12 ERA with the peripherals to match, pinpoint control, and the ability go pitch deep into games. The K's are down from last year, but so are the walks. Hopefully he will continue to improve next season and give the Nats 180+ strong innings.
#3-John Lannan-John just keeps on truckin'. His ERA (3.65) is a little lucky for sure, but less lucky than in years past (according to the peripherals). And Nats fans have heard it all before. Somehow Lannan keeps providing good-enough pitching, with 2011 being his best season by far. His K's and Groundballs are up, and his HR's are down. He still has to get his BB's down, but he has made great strides this season. If anything, he is a good back-end starter who can eat innings and doesn't cost very much. He is not a front-end starter however, and I think he is better served as a 4/5 starter. But with the way he has pitched this season, he certainly deserves a spot in the rotation for next season.
I would say those are the only guarantees as far as the rotation is concerned. The next two spots are very much up in the air depending on how the rest of this season and free agency shakes out. Will Rizzo continue his crusade for a #1 starter as he did this offseason? I certainly hope not. I don't want to part with any young arms (Cole/Ray) when our realistic timetable for contention isn't until 2013 anyway. Rizzo may feel the need to get a Marquis/Livan "veteran" innings-eater type. I have no problem with that as long as it's for the right price (AKA next to nothing for a year deal). But going out and getting a veteran for the sake of getting some "experience" in the rotation is not the best way to spend Lerner's money. My hope is that Rizzo doesn't need to run out and get a FA starting pitcher so the in-house young guns can get a chance to develop for the real chance for a playoff run.
I don't think Chein Ming Wang is the long term solution, but the rest of this season will be very important to see if he is worth bringing back for another year. I will be watching his starts the rest of the season, but I don't think he should be gifted a spot next year if there are better in house options. Certainly, the enigmatic Rossy D should get a chance. In very limited appearances as this season for the big league club he has done fine, but the AAA numbers look pretty bad. I would love to see him succeed, but the rest of this season is going to be a huge barometer for his future with the team. He has shown flashes, but he needs to put some strong starts together at the end of this season and prove once and for all he was worthy of that 1st round selection. I am very skeptical, but maybe he can put it together and become a serviceable back-end lefty in the rotation. It doesn't look good, but he better put it together since Rizzo couldn't part with him for Michael Bourn (which is indefensible). Gorzelanny is another option for the number 5/long relief role, but he has been nothing short of frustrating this season. I still would prefer Gorzo over an expensive/old/bad FA, but I think he is better suited to a spot start or long relief role than a guaranteed rotation spot if the Nats elect to bring him back. The intriguing names to fill out the rotation would be Peacock and Milone. Peacock has silly numbers in a bunch of different levels this year, but it remains to be seen if he has enough stuff to be a starter and not just a strong reliever. He will get probably get the chance in September, as will Milone. Milone profiles at best as a 4/5 starter long-term, so don't expect too much out of him. The Nats have a multitude of in-house options, but besides Peacock and maybe (doubtful) Detwiler are the only ones with any real upside. Rizzo will probably feel the need to get a FA pitcher, but hopefully that won't be necessary (unless cheap and short-term deals can be found) and the young guns can get a chance to put up or shut up. Hopefully Peacock and Detwiler can put it together and Rizzo can put some extra money in the draft. Finding a competent lead off hitter should be a bigger priority than starting pitching. While I enjoy Rick "the Stick" Ankiel, he ain't a leadoff hitter (or everyday regular).
#1-Strasburg-No need for explanation. If he can come back strong and stay healthy, he is a true #1.
#2-J-Zim-Asserted himself as a legitimate #2 guy this season, and has put up terrific numbers all year. 3.12 ERA with the peripherals to match, pinpoint control, and the ability go pitch deep into games. The K's are down from last year, but so are the walks. Hopefully he will continue to improve next season and give the Nats 180+ strong innings.
#3-John Lannan-John just keeps on truckin'. His ERA (3.65) is a little lucky for sure, but less lucky than in years past (according to the peripherals). And Nats fans have heard it all before. Somehow Lannan keeps providing good-enough pitching, with 2011 being his best season by far. His K's and Groundballs are up, and his HR's are down. He still has to get his BB's down, but he has made great strides this season. If anything, he is a good back-end starter who can eat innings and doesn't cost very much. He is not a front-end starter however, and I think he is better served as a 4/5 starter. But with the way he has pitched this season, he certainly deserves a spot in the rotation for next season.
I would say those are the only guarantees as far as the rotation is concerned. The next two spots are very much up in the air depending on how the rest of this season and free agency shakes out. Will Rizzo continue his crusade for a #1 starter as he did this offseason? I certainly hope not. I don't want to part with any young arms (Cole/Ray) when our realistic timetable for contention isn't until 2013 anyway. Rizzo may feel the need to get a Marquis/Livan "veteran" innings-eater type. I have no problem with that as long as it's for the right price (AKA next to nothing for a year deal). But going out and getting a veteran for the sake of getting some "experience" in the rotation is not the best way to spend Lerner's money. My hope is that Rizzo doesn't need to run out and get a FA starting pitcher so the in-house young guns can get a chance to develop for the real chance for a playoff run.
I don't think Chein Ming Wang is the long term solution, but the rest of this season will be very important to see if he is worth bringing back for another year. I will be watching his starts the rest of the season, but I don't think he should be gifted a spot next year if there are better in house options. Certainly, the enigmatic Rossy D should get a chance. In very limited appearances as this season for the big league club he has done fine, but the AAA numbers look pretty bad. I would love to see him succeed, but the rest of this season is going to be a huge barometer for his future with the team. He has shown flashes, but he needs to put some strong starts together at the end of this season and prove once and for all he was worthy of that 1st round selection. I am very skeptical, but maybe he can put it together and become a serviceable back-end lefty in the rotation. It doesn't look good, but he better put it together since Rizzo couldn't part with him for Michael Bourn (which is indefensible). Gorzelanny is another option for the number 5/long relief role, but he has been nothing short of frustrating this season. I still would prefer Gorzo over an expensive/old/bad FA, but I think he is better suited to a spot start or long relief role than a guaranteed rotation spot if the Nats elect to bring him back. The intriguing names to fill out the rotation would be Peacock and Milone. Peacock has silly numbers in a bunch of different levels this year, but it remains to be seen if he has enough stuff to be a starter and not just a strong reliever. He will get probably get the chance in September, as will Milone. Milone profiles at best as a 4/5 starter long-term, so don't expect too much out of him. The Nats have a multitude of in-house options, but besides Peacock and maybe (doubtful) Detwiler are the only ones with any real upside. Rizzo will probably feel the need to get a FA pitcher, but hopefully that won't be necessary (unless cheap and short-term deals can be found) and the young guns can get a chance to put up or shut up. Hopefully Peacock and Detwiler can put it together and Rizzo can put some extra money in the draft. Finding a competent lead off hitter should be a bigger priority than starting pitching. While I enjoy Rick "the Stick" Ankiel, he ain't a leadoff hitter (or everyday regular).
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Trade Deadline Review
Okay, so it looks like I missed a potential center fielder earlier, that being Denard Span. But before we tackle the CF issue, I wanted to look at our actual trades.
First, the Gomes deal. This was a weird deal to say the least. It could end up being a huge win for us IF we offer him arbitration, AND some team is dumb enough to sign him (meaning we get a pick). I have a hard time believing some other team would be dumb enough to sign him and give away the pick, but who knows? I do know that when Jim Bowden calls it "a great move," I get concerned. It's a risky move which could turn out to be a great one if we catch a few breaks.
As far as the Marquis and Hairston deals go, those are clear wins for the Nationals. Not only did Rizzo free up some space to hopefully sign Goodwin/Purke, but he also got decent prospects in return. The two prospects don't profile as stars, but cheap, useful pieces that every team needs. These were not sexy deals, but terrific returns for older veterans that really have no use for the future of this team.
Now for the deals The Nats did not make. The non-trade for Rasmus has already been covered in detail, but that was more of a personal dream, so I will move on. If this article is true (http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110802&content_id=22655306¬ebook_id=22657066&vkey=notebook_was&c_id=was), then the Nats messed up. Even if it isn't. The return the Astros got for Bourn was really, really, not good by all accounts. No major league ready talent (besides Schaefer, who is not better than Bernadina and more injury prone to boot), and 3 meh prospects for a great defensive CF yet to hit FA? For all the posturing the Astros did to say that Bourn would take a sizable return in a trade, Ed Wade lied. The Nationals could have easily surpassed the deal the Braves made, or at the very least, pushed them to improve their offer by throwing in Mike Minor or one of their top 4 pitching prospects. Judging by this trade, Rizzo could have dealt Bernadina (better than Schaefer), Detwiler, and a few potential bullpen arms. This doesn't cost THAT much, as we have a lot of depth in the minors for pitching, and Bourn would solve all of our CF and leadoff issues for the time being.
Still, that was a deal that never appeared to be that close to happening. The big non-deal would have to be the Span for Storen/Lombo/Bernie deal. I understand why Rizzo passed, and I realize Drew is a fan favorite (I love him too), but isn't it common knowledge to most (clearly not the Twins) that relievers are volatile and not nearly as valuable as say, a young CF with a team friendly deal. For everyone hollering about trading Drew, remember the Ramos for Capps fleecing? Those deals would not be quite as different as you think. However, I think there is reason to be concerned with Span's concussion and to make sure he comes back healthy first. I still believe that one or both of Clip/Storen get moved this offseason, whether it is for Span/Upton. Personally, I would rather have Upton, but it's very, very difficult to pull one over the Rays front office, and it's clearly a lot easier to sneak one by the Twins.
One more non-trade. Why did Rizzo hang onto Coffey? I am not sure if he qualifies as a Type B, but there are plenty of teams that need bullpen help. Of course, Rizzo could flip him assuming he makes it through waivers, so for Coffey (and the rest of the one year vets-Nix, Ankiel, etc.) a trade could still be made.
All in all, The Nats moves that were actually made were great (although the Gomes deal could go really wrong), but there will be more to come this August/offseason, so the grade would have to be incomplete.
First, the Gomes deal. This was a weird deal to say the least. It could end up being a huge win for us IF we offer him arbitration, AND some team is dumb enough to sign him (meaning we get a pick). I have a hard time believing some other team would be dumb enough to sign him and give away the pick, but who knows? I do know that when Jim Bowden calls it "a great move," I get concerned. It's a risky move which could turn out to be a great one if we catch a few breaks.
As far as the Marquis and Hairston deals go, those are clear wins for the Nationals. Not only did Rizzo free up some space to hopefully sign Goodwin/Purke, but he also got decent prospects in return. The two prospects don't profile as stars, but cheap, useful pieces that every team needs. These were not sexy deals, but terrific returns for older veterans that really have no use for the future of this team.
Now for the deals The Nats did not make. The non-trade for Rasmus has already been covered in detail, but that was more of a personal dream, so I will move on. If this article is true (http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110802&content_id=22655306¬ebook_id=22657066&vkey=notebook_was&c_id=was), then the Nats messed up. Even if it isn't. The return the Astros got for Bourn was really, really, not good by all accounts. No major league ready talent (besides Schaefer, who is not better than Bernadina and more injury prone to boot), and 3 meh prospects for a great defensive CF yet to hit FA? For all the posturing the Astros did to say that Bourn would take a sizable return in a trade, Ed Wade lied. The Nationals could have easily surpassed the deal the Braves made, or at the very least, pushed them to improve their offer by throwing in Mike Minor or one of their top 4 pitching prospects. Judging by this trade, Rizzo could have dealt Bernadina (better than Schaefer), Detwiler, and a few potential bullpen arms. This doesn't cost THAT much, as we have a lot of depth in the minors for pitching, and Bourn would solve all of our CF and leadoff issues for the time being.
Still, that was a deal that never appeared to be that close to happening. The big non-deal would have to be the Span for Storen/Lombo/Bernie deal. I understand why Rizzo passed, and I realize Drew is a fan favorite (I love him too), but isn't it common knowledge to most (clearly not the Twins) that relievers are volatile and not nearly as valuable as say, a young CF with a team friendly deal. For everyone hollering about trading Drew, remember the Ramos for Capps fleecing? Those deals would not be quite as different as you think. However, I think there is reason to be concerned with Span's concussion and to make sure he comes back healthy first. I still believe that one or both of Clip/Storen get moved this offseason, whether it is for Span/Upton. Personally, I would rather have Upton, but it's very, very difficult to pull one over the Rays front office, and it's clearly a lot easier to sneak one by the Twins.
One more non-trade. Why did Rizzo hang onto Coffey? I am not sure if he qualifies as a Type B, but there are plenty of teams that need bullpen help. Of course, Rizzo could flip him assuming he makes it through waivers, so for Coffey (and the rest of the one year vets-Nix, Ankiel, etc.) a trade could still be made.
All in all, The Nats moves that were actually made were great (although the Gomes deal could go really wrong), but there will be more to come this August/offseason, so the grade would have to be incomplete.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Back for real
Okay, so maybe I didn't take this thing seriously the first time I tried to do it. But after much consideration, I think I am back to give my Nationals thoughts and observations (not that anyone reads this anyway).
Let me start this post by saying one thing: I am an unabashed Colby Rasmus fan. I think he is a terrific young ballplayer, and it is downright shocking to me how the Rasmus-Cardinals situation has played out. (That's not entirely true, because when an ego-maniacal fool such as Tony LaRussa is involved, I believe anything is possible.) When I heard he was potentially on the trade block, it was an unbelievable development. Really? Colby Rasmus is available for pennies on the dollar? He put up a 4.3 WAR as a 23 year old in CF! He has tremendous offensive potential at a premium defensive position and makes the league minimum. If I'm Mike Rizzo, I would have really gone after this kid. I do partially understand the Upton love-fest, but Rasmus is younger, cheaper, and profiles as a better ballplayer. Needless to say, I had my fingers crossed that we could somehow land this kid. Then, the asking price kept going down and down. Edwin Jackson and a prospect could get the deal done? I didn't believe the Cardinals were actually that stupid. Then, the news broke today: Colby Rasmus went to the Blue Jays for Edwin Jackson, a solid prospect (around 7th best in the Blue Jays system which is one of the best in the game) and the poo-poo platter.
I think this was way more upsetting to me than the albatross contract Rizzo gave Werth. Didn't we match up perfectly with the Cardinals? Their big weaknesses are SS, SP depth, and the bullpen. We couldn't have given them Desmond, Marquis/Livo (both are not as good as Edwin Jackson, but both are way better than McClellan), Coffey/Clippard (Not lefties, but still effective relievers), and ANY prospect from the system not named Harper or Cole? So worst case scenario, we trade Desmond, Marquis, Clippard, and Norris/Peacock for Rasmus. I'd say that's a sizeable return, and a much better one than what the Blue Jays gave up. Whenever a rare rare opportunity to acquire such a young, premium talent comes along like this, the Nats need to take advantage. Rizzo did it to last season with the Capps-Ramos deal, and the Nats somehow had the chance to do it again this season. A core of the two Zimms, Stras, Espinosa, Harper, Rasmus, Ramos, and Storen (hopefully Rendon too) is incredibly tantalizing.
However, that fantasy is over. So now the question remains, what will the Nats do about the CF situation? There are quite a few options out there, but I think with Rasmus off the market the best one at this point would be B.J. Upton, at the right price. Apparently the Rays balked at Desmond straight up for Upton, and I don't think Rizzo should offer too much more than that. But something like Des, Peacock and some C Grade fringe prospect for Upton has to be strongly considered. By this point we have all seen Upton's declining numbers and heard that he is arbitration eligible. But here's why to pull the trigger:
1) Espinosa is a better option at SS than Desmond, and Desmond still has some value right now
2) The switch from the AL East to the NL should certainly help his numbers
3) Young-ish CF with speed, power, and defense
4) Better than the other CF's thrown out in trade rumors (Bourn-nice defensive value/OBP numbers, but playing in the NL Central and more expensive to acquire in a trade/Bourjos-Terrific defense in CF, but shades of Carlos Gomez with good field, no hit)
5) Bernie is better suited to be a 4th OF, and Ankiel is better suited to be somewhere else (still better than Gomes)
That being sad, Rasmus would have looked really nice in a Nationals uniform the next 4 years.
Let me start this post by saying one thing: I am an unabashed Colby Rasmus fan. I think he is a terrific young ballplayer, and it is downright shocking to me how the Rasmus-Cardinals situation has played out. (That's not entirely true, because when an ego-maniacal fool such as Tony LaRussa is involved, I believe anything is possible.) When I heard he was potentially on the trade block, it was an unbelievable development. Really? Colby Rasmus is available for pennies on the dollar? He put up a 4.3 WAR as a 23 year old in CF! He has tremendous offensive potential at a premium defensive position and makes the league minimum. If I'm Mike Rizzo, I would have really gone after this kid. I do partially understand the Upton love-fest, but Rasmus is younger, cheaper, and profiles as a better ballplayer. Needless to say, I had my fingers crossed that we could somehow land this kid. Then, the asking price kept going down and down. Edwin Jackson and a prospect could get the deal done? I didn't believe the Cardinals were actually that stupid. Then, the news broke today: Colby Rasmus went to the Blue Jays for Edwin Jackson, a solid prospect (around 7th best in the Blue Jays system which is one of the best in the game) and the poo-poo platter.
I think this was way more upsetting to me than the albatross contract Rizzo gave Werth. Didn't we match up perfectly with the Cardinals? Their big weaknesses are SS, SP depth, and the bullpen. We couldn't have given them Desmond, Marquis/Livo (both are not as good as Edwin Jackson, but both are way better than McClellan), Coffey/Clippard (Not lefties, but still effective relievers), and ANY prospect from the system not named Harper or Cole? So worst case scenario, we trade Desmond, Marquis, Clippard, and Norris/Peacock for Rasmus. I'd say that's a sizeable return, and a much better one than what the Blue Jays gave up. Whenever a rare rare opportunity to acquire such a young, premium talent comes along like this, the Nats need to take advantage. Rizzo did it to last season with the Capps-Ramos deal, and the Nats somehow had the chance to do it again this season. A core of the two Zimms, Stras, Espinosa, Harper, Rasmus, Ramos, and Storen (hopefully Rendon too) is incredibly tantalizing.
However, that fantasy is over. So now the question remains, what will the Nats do about the CF situation? There are quite a few options out there, but I think with Rasmus off the market the best one at this point would be B.J. Upton, at the right price. Apparently the Rays balked at Desmond straight up for Upton, and I don't think Rizzo should offer too much more than that. But something like Des, Peacock and some C Grade fringe prospect for Upton has to be strongly considered. By this point we have all seen Upton's declining numbers and heard that he is arbitration eligible. But here's why to pull the trigger:
1) Espinosa is a better option at SS than Desmond, and Desmond still has some value right now
2) The switch from the AL East to the NL should certainly help his numbers
3) Young-ish CF with speed, power, and defense
4) Better than the other CF's thrown out in trade rumors (Bourn-nice defensive value/OBP numbers, but playing in the NL Central and more expensive to acquire in a trade/Bourjos-Terrific defense in CF, but shades of Carlos Gomez with good field, no hit)
5) Bernie is better suited to be a 4th OF, and Ankiel is better suited to be somewhere else (still better than Gomes)
That being sad, Rasmus would have looked really nice in a Nationals uniform the next 4 years.
Monday, October 4, 2010
End of season thoughts, part I
Now that the season is over, I guess the time is ripe for my first real post. At first glance, a 69-93 win-loss record doesn't look so hot. But anytime a team improves 10 games from the prior season, progress was certainly made. And if the Nats can improve 10 games a year, they will be World Series bound in no time (if only it were that easy). But with the season over, and with me being forever the optimist, I first wanted to take an in-depth look at what went right for the Nats in 2010:
Ryan Zimmerman: What else is there to say? Easily the best 3B in all of baseball, and sadly not enough respect him. Zim finished the season 3rd in the NL in WAR, but he was leading until he was shut down with the rib injury the last week or so. Finished with a superb .899 OPS and a career high .307 batting average. Not to mention that he played the best defense in all of baseball. While the 25 home runs were down a bit from last year, he did play 15 less games due to the early hamstring injury and the rib injury at the end of the year. The argument could be made that Zimmerman had one of the most underrated seasons of all time, and Nationals fans should take great pride in their 3B. Ignore the RBI totals because he would have had 150 if the Nats had any semblance of decent 1-2 hitters, and he got unlucky with a huge number of solo HRs. If he doesn't win the Gold Glove again it would be a travesty (17.3 Ultimate Zone Rating), and he certainly deserves a top-3 finish in the MVP voting (although it won't happen). And to think he didn't even make the All-Star game. Zimmerman continues to be a terrific player and the main reason I watch the number of games that I do.
Livan Hernandez: Who knew that the marquee free agent pick-up for the Nats would be Livo? The ageless wonder managed over 210 solid innings this year, and was a very dependable starter. His 3.66 ERA was about a run and a half less than I anticipated, and his slow curve ball was fun for everyone. While the strikeout numbers weren't great and nobody is counting on a repeat of 2010 for next season, Livan absolutely deserved another run in the rotation and should be a solid, if unspectacular, number 5 for the Nats next season.
Stephen Strasburg: Injury aside, he lifted the franchise to new and incredible heights for a good part of the summer. He showed 4 plus pitches and showed tremendous stuff and a great feel for pitching. It was almost like watching Danny Almonte pitching against 11 and 12 year olds when he made his debut against the Pirates (but for all we know, he may have been facing the little league team from Pittsburgh). He somehow managed to finish second out of Nats starting pitchers in K's, even though he started a mere 12 games. With 12.18 K/9 and an absolutely silly K/BB ratio of 5.4:1, Nationals fans have a lot of great memories of Strasmania. He put butts in the seats and gave the Nats the most positive press in their short history. And while the arm injury was devastating, it could have been worse. People compare his motion to Prior's all the time, but Prior had shoulder problems. Shoulder problems are much much much worse than elbow problems. In the grand scheme of things, a bunch of guys have had TJ surgery. While nothing is guaranteed, and it generally takes more than 12-18 months to really get back (look at Liriano, who took 3-4 years to become dominant again), the prognosis is not as bad as it could have been and National's fans have reasons to feel okay. Hopefully we will be seeing him at the end of 2011 better than ever.
Adam Dunn: Dunn has to be considered one of the best left-handed bats in baseball. Defense aside, the guy can rake. Yeah he strikes out a bunch, but he gets on base frequently and has prodigious power. The move to 1B didn't turn out half-bad, and although he upped Zim and Desi's error total by a bunch due to an inability to scoop balls in the dirt, he didn't look as bad as most anticipated. And he didn't look nearly as bad as he did in the outfield. In fact, let me do a quick comparison for you:
Player A- .260/.356/.536, 38 HR, 199 SOs, 77 BBs, UZR -3.4 (age 30)
Player B- .276/.353/.505, 31 HR, 157 SOs, 59BBs, UZR -11.7 (age 30)
Player A is Adam Dunn from 2010 and Player B is Ryan Howard from 2010. While Howard gets the huge amounts of press for his wonderful RBI total (when even Justin Maxwell hitting clean-up in that lineup would have 100 RBIs) and the huge 25 million dollar per year extension, is he that much better than Dunn? I would argue no, and I would argue that Dunn absolutely warrants a 3 year deal worth 45 million. I would also argue that keeping Zim after his current contract expires is a huge concern, and Zim has publicly stated many times that he wants to see Dunn stick around. Considering we spent (or flushed down the toilet) 7.5 million per year on Jason "no outs" Marquis, we can find 15 a year for Dunn for 3 years. Unless we plan on signing Lee or Crawford, we have to do something to give Zim hope for 2011, and bringing back Dunn would really help that.
Josh Willingham pre-injury: Before the Hammer went down with that knee injury, the Nationals had one of the best 3-4-5 in baseball. Scoff all you want, but at the beginning of the season not many teams could match up with us at those 3 spots of the lineup. Sadly the 1-2 and 6-8 hitters brought almost nothing to the table while the big 3 were tearing it up. Willingham was above average in LF defensively, a great number 5 hitter, and a decent base-runner. I was very happy to see us hold onto him at the trade deadline, and hopefully he will be back healthy for the entire 2011 season and provide a nice 25 home run season, with a continued ability to get on base seemingly at will.
The Entire Nat's bullpen (minus Bruney): Storen, Clippard, Burnett, and of course Capps were all reliable and excellent relievers for the team all season long. Joel Peralta, Doug Slaten and Collin Balester also had great years and really proved themselves to the team. And after Miggy's spot start for Stras against the Braves, who could ever say anything bad about him? What makes our bullpen even more impressive is the sheer amount of innings pitched. When only one or two starters can consistently give 6 innings, that puts quite the burden on the 'pen. Although there is great potential for regression (especially for guys like Peralta and Slaten), the bullpen figures to be a strength for next season.
Capps for Ramos: Really? When I heard the Nats traded Capps, I remember thinking, "Please let the Twins be dumb enough to give us Ramos." And they did. What a tremendous deal for the Nats. You are telling me we can give ourselves a cheap starting catcher for the next 4-6 years for a closer that was non-tendered by the Pirates this offseason? An unbelievably shrewd move by Rizzo, and a blatant overvaluing of saves by the Twins. Ramos has shown good power potential and looks like a stud in the making. I know Derek Norris is waiting in the wings, but the Ramos move was a no-brainer and gives us tremendous amounts of flexibility going forward. Maybe (I am not saying I want for this to happen) we could move Norris to 1B if we decide to not resign Dunn. All I know is that trading a closer for a young catcher that can hit is an easy decision to make, and a move that the Nats should look back on very favorably. Capps was a wonderful person and player for the 1st half and it was fun to have him around, but it will be better to have Ramos for the next 6 years. Another underrated aspect of this trade would be that Wil Nieves has about 4 ABs since Ramos was called up, which is a sigh of relief for everyone.
Michael Morse: Lefty killer. Morse came out of nowhere this season. Count me among those who thought early in the season that Morse was no good and didn't warrant a spot over Maxwell (that's an embarrassing sentence to write). But Morse turned out to be a terrific right handed batter and power threat throughout the season. Maybe this season was a bit flukish and maybe he can't play much defense, but the power numbers are hard to ignore and he swung a great bat for the Nats all year. At the very least he should make a terrific platoon player, and with greater plate discipline he could conceivably be a better than average to average starter (although I would not bank on it).
Nationals 2010 draft: Potentially (outisde of Zim/Stras) the most important section on this list. Yeah the Harper pick/sign was great, but that was a no-brainer and everyone knew the deal was going to get done. Signing 1st round talent A.J. Cole away from The U in the 4th round was the highlight of the draft for me. Cole projects to be a front-line starter and was worth every penny of his 2 million. We even signed Vandy recruit and 12th round selection Robbie Ray. Not to mention Sammy Solis in the 2nd round. The Nats had arguably the best draft of any team, and really positioned themselves well for 3-5 years from now when these kids are coming up. Building through the draft is incredibly important, and the Nats have nailed the first Bowden-free drafts. A lot of upside in the class of 2010, and the future appears very bright.
Jordan Zimmermann's right arm: When Zimm went down last year with the dreaded forearm tightness and needed TJ, I was crushed. He had ace potential and was striking out guys like crazy. And our rotation last year (and this year) certainly needed him out there every 5th day. But it was great to see him come back so quickly, and absolutely dominate minor league ball. While his stretch in the majors wasn't quite as successful, his start in Florida against the Marlins was in my opinion the best non-Strasburg start all year. He carved up Florida and struck out 9 in 6 IP on only 96 pitches. Zimm is a no doubter to be our 2011 opening day starter, and figures to make an awesome 1-2 punch with Stras for years to come. Expect better numbers in the coming years.
Ian Desmond/Danny Espinosa: I'll start with Desi. While he had a below average year defensively (-7.8 UZR), defensive metrics generally have to accumulate over 2 or 3 years before definitive statements can be made. That may be rationalization, but Des sure has tantalizing defensive potential at SS and he is still figuring it out. I estimate about 20 of his errors were either due to poor decisions (throwing a ball to first that he should have eaten) or Adam Dunn. After Guz, seeing a young Des run around and play SS was pretty fun to watch, and it was enjoyable to watch him grow throughout the year. He has some pop in his bat and could one day be a 15-20 HR guy. However, he needs to learn some plate discipline. It's nice to hit .269 as a rookie, but not if you are only getting on base at a .308 clip. I can't even describe how many times I watched him strike out on absolutely terrible pitchers. He seemed to walk a bit more after the all star break, but he has to learn to get on base more if he really wants to be a building block for this team. As for Espinosa, the kid can play some second base. Wow. Talk about a defensive upgrade over Kennedy and Guz (or, the poo-poo platter if you would prefer). He also has a tremendous amount of power in for a switch hitting 2B, and figures to be our starting second basemen next year. He still needs to show a bit more patience and a smarter approach with 2 strikes. I attribute his big SO numbers to a small sample size and a desire to do too much. Best case for Espy in the next few years would be a gold glove caliber 2B who can give us consistent 20-20 seasons and a .350 OBP once he learns some plate discipline, but don't expect that until 2012 or 2013 if at all. All in all, we seem to have a solid and cheap DP combo for the next few years, and I expect big jumps from both of these players next year.
John Lannan after his stint in AA: Lannan looked like a new pitcher after his mid-season demotion. While there will always be naysayers for pitchers like Lannan, there is no doubt his Ks were up and BBs were down once coming back. He pitched deeper into games and got more ground balls after getting called up. While Lannan is by no means an ace, he deserves the number 3 or 4 spot in the rotation next year and hopefully he can carry the momentum from this season into the start of next season.
Playing the Atlanta Braves: 10-8 against the Braves this year? Gotta love it.
Bob Carpenter: Just a classy guy, and the best play-by-play announcer I have ever listened to. Also gets kudos for dealing with Dibble and Ray Knight, which is no small feat.
Alberto Gonzalez: Love him defensively. He is a stud in the infield and if he is the 25th player on our team, I am happy with that. Not the worst hitter in the world either. Not a good hitter, but if he can hit .260 off the bench and play stellar defense he is more than worth a roster spot for 2011, simply due to his glove.
Jason Marquis and Chein Ming-Wang: JOKING
Part II to come at some point in the future.
-Nick
Ryan Zimmerman: What else is there to say? Easily the best 3B in all of baseball, and sadly not enough respect him. Zim finished the season 3rd in the NL in WAR, but he was leading until he was shut down with the rib injury the last week or so. Finished with a superb .899 OPS and a career high .307 batting average. Not to mention that he played the best defense in all of baseball. While the 25 home runs were down a bit from last year, he did play 15 less games due to the early hamstring injury and the rib injury at the end of the year. The argument could be made that Zimmerman had one of the most underrated seasons of all time, and Nationals fans should take great pride in their 3B. Ignore the RBI totals because he would have had 150 if the Nats had any semblance of decent 1-2 hitters, and he got unlucky with a huge number of solo HRs. If he doesn't win the Gold Glove again it would be a travesty (17.3 Ultimate Zone Rating), and he certainly deserves a top-3 finish in the MVP voting (although it won't happen). And to think he didn't even make the All-Star game. Zimmerman continues to be a terrific player and the main reason I watch the number of games that I do.
Livan Hernandez: Who knew that the marquee free agent pick-up for the Nats would be Livo? The ageless wonder managed over 210 solid innings this year, and was a very dependable starter. His 3.66 ERA was about a run and a half less than I anticipated, and his slow curve ball was fun for everyone. While the strikeout numbers weren't great and nobody is counting on a repeat of 2010 for next season, Livan absolutely deserved another run in the rotation and should be a solid, if unspectacular, number 5 for the Nats next season.
Stephen Strasburg: Injury aside, he lifted the franchise to new and incredible heights for a good part of the summer. He showed 4 plus pitches and showed tremendous stuff and a great feel for pitching. It was almost like watching Danny Almonte pitching against 11 and 12 year olds when he made his debut against the Pirates (but for all we know, he may have been facing the little league team from Pittsburgh). He somehow managed to finish second out of Nats starting pitchers in K's, even though he started a mere 12 games. With 12.18 K/9 and an absolutely silly K/BB ratio of 5.4:1, Nationals fans have a lot of great memories of Strasmania. He put butts in the seats and gave the Nats the most positive press in their short history. And while the arm injury was devastating, it could have been worse. People compare his motion to Prior's all the time, but Prior had shoulder problems. Shoulder problems are much much much worse than elbow problems. In the grand scheme of things, a bunch of guys have had TJ surgery. While nothing is guaranteed, and it generally takes more than 12-18 months to really get back (look at Liriano, who took 3-4 years to become dominant again), the prognosis is not as bad as it could have been and National's fans have reasons to feel okay. Hopefully we will be seeing him at the end of 2011 better than ever.
Adam Dunn: Dunn has to be considered one of the best left-handed bats in baseball. Defense aside, the guy can rake. Yeah he strikes out a bunch, but he gets on base frequently and has prodigious power. The move to 1B didn't turn out half-bad, and although he upped Zim and Desi's error total by a bunch due to an inability to scoop balls in the dirt, he didn't look as bad as most anticipated. And he didn't look nearly as bad as he did in the outfield. In fact, let me do a quick comparison for you:
Player A- .260/.356/.536, 38 HR, 199 SOs, 77 BBs, UZR -3.4 (age 30)
Player B- .276/.353/.505, 31 HR, 157 SOs, 59BBs, UZR -11.7 (age 30)
Player A is Adam Dunn from 2010 and Player B is Ryan Howard from 2010. While Howard gets the huge amounts of press for his wonderful RBI total (when even Justin Maxwell hitting clean-up in that lineup would have 100 RBIs) and the huge 25 million dollar per year extension, is he that much better than Dunn? I would argue no, and I would argue that Dunn absolutely warrants a 3 year deal worth 45 million. I would also argue that keeping Zim after his current contract expires is a huge concern, and Zim has publicly stated many times that he wants to see Dunn stick around. Considering we spent (or flushed down the toilet) 7.5 million per year on Jason "no outs" Marquis, we can find 15 a year for Dunn for 3 years. Unless we plan on signing Lee or Crawford, we have to do something to give Zim hope for 2011, and bringing back Dunn would really help that.
Josh Willingham pre-injury: Before the Hammer went down with that knee injury, the Nationals had one of the best 3-4-5 in baseball. Scoff all you want, but at the beginning of the season not many teams could match up with us at those 3 spots of the lineup. Sadly the 1-2 and 6-8 hitters brought almost nothing to the table while the big 3 were tearing it up. Willingham was above average in LF defensively, a great number 5 hitter, and a decent base-runner. I was very happy to see us hold onto him at the trade deadline, and hopefully he will be back healthy for the entire 2011 season and provide a nice 25 home run season, with a continued ability to get on base seemingly at will.
The Entire Nat's bullpen (minus Bruney): Storen, Clippard, Burnett, and of course Capps were all reliable and excellent relievers for the team all season long. Joel Peralta, Doug Slaten and Collin Balester also had great years and really proved themselves to the team. And after Miggy's spot start for Stras against the Braves, who could ever say anything bad about him? What makes our bullpen even more impressive is the sheer amount of innings pitched. When only one or two starters can consistently give 6 innings, that puts quite the burden on the 'pen. Although there is great potential for regression (especially for guys like Peralta and Slaten), the bullpen figures to be a strength for next season.
Capps for Ramos: Really? When I heard the Nats traded Capps, I remember thinking, "Please let the Twins be dumb enough to give us Ramos." And they did. What a tremendous deal for the Nats. You are telling me we can give ourselves a cheap starting catcher for the next 4-6 years for a closer that was non-tendered by the Pirates this offseason? An unbelievably shrewd move by Rizzo, and a blatant overvaluing of saves by the Twins. Ramos has shown good power potential and looks like a stud in the making. I know Derek Norris is waiting in the wings, but the Ramos move was a no-brainer and gives us tremendous amounts of flexibility going forward. Maybe (I am not saying I want for this to happen) we could move Norris to 1B if we decide to not resign Dunn. All I know is that trading a closer for a young catcher that can hit is an easy decision to make, and a move that the Nats should look back on very favorably. Capps was a wonderful person and player for the 1st half and it was fun to have him around, but it will be better to have Ramos for the next 6 years. Another underrated aspect of this trade would be that Wil Nieves has about 4 ABs since Ramos was called up, which is a sigh of relief for everyone.
Michael Morse: Lefty killer. Morse came out of nowhere this season. Count me among those who thought early in the season that Morse was no good and didn't warrant a spot over Maxwell (that's an embarrassing sentence to write). But Morse turned out to be a terrific right handed batter and power threat throughout the season. Maybe this season was a bit flukish and maybe he can't play much defense, but the power numbers are hard to ignore and he swung a great bat for the Nats all year. At the very least he should make a terrific platoon player, and with greater plate discipline he could conceivably be a better than average to average starter (although I would not bank on it).
Nationals 2010 draft: Potentially (outisde of Zim/Stras) the most important section on this list. Yeah the Harper pick/sign was great, but that was a no-brainer and everyone knew the deal was going to get done. Signing 1st round talent A.J. Cole away from The U in the 4th round was the highlight of the draft for me. Cole projects to be a front-line starter and was worth every penny of his 2 million. We even signed Vandy recruit and 12th round selection Robbie Ray. Not to mention Sammy Solis in the 2nd round. The Nats had arguably the best draft of any team, and really positioned themselves well for 3-5 years from now when these kids are coming up. Building through the draft is incredibly important, and the Nats have nailed the first Bowden-free drafts. A lot of upside in the class of 2010, and the future appears very bright.
Jordan Zimmermann's right arm: When Zimm went down last year with the dreaded forearm tightness and needed TJ, I was crushed. He had ace potential and was striking out guys like crazy. And our rotation last year (and this year) certainly needed him out there every 5th day. But it was great to see him come back so quickly, and absolutely dominate minor league ball. While his stretch in the majors wasn't quite as successful, his start in Florida against the Marlins was in my opinion the best non-Strasburg start all year. He carved up Florida and struck out 9 in 6 IP on only 96 pitches. Zimm is a no doubter to be our 2011 opening day starter, and figures to make an awesome 1-2 punch with Stras for years to come. Expect better numbers in the coming years.
Ian Desmond/Danny Espinosa: I'll start with Desi. While he had a below average year defensively (-7.8 UZR), defensive metrics generally have to accumulate over 2 or 3 years before definitive statements can be made. That may be rationalization, but Des sure has tantalizing defensive potential at SS and he is still figuring it out. I estimate about 20 of his errors were either due to poor decisions (throwing a ball to first that he should have eaten) or Adam Dunn. After Guz, seeing a young Des run around and play SS was pretty fun to watch, and it was enjoyable to watch him grow throughout the year. He has some pop in his bat and could one day be a 15-20 HR guy. However, he needs to learn some plate discipline. It's nice to hit .269 as a rookie, but not if you are only getting on base at a .308 clip. I can't even describe how many times I watched him strike out on absolutely terrible pitchers. He seemed to walk a bit more after the all star break, but he has to learn to get on base more if he really wants to be a building block for this team. As for Espinosa, the kid can play some second base. Wow. Talk about a defensive upgrade over Kennedy and Guz (or, the poo-poo platter if you would prefer). He also has a tremendous amount of power in for a switch hitting 2B, and figures to be our starting second basemen next year. He still needs to show a bit more patience and a smarter approach with 2 strikes. I attribute his big SO numbers to a small sample size and a desire to do too much. Best case for Espy in the next few years would be a gold glove caliber 2B who can give us consistent 20-20 seasons and a .350 OBP once he learns some plate discipline, but don't expect that until 2012 or 2013 if at all. All in all, we seem to have a solid and cheap DP combo for the next few years, and I expect big jumps from both of these players next year.
John Lannan after his stint in AA: Lannan looked like a new pitcher after his mid-season demotion. While there will always be naysayers for pitchers like Lannan, there is no doubt his Ks were up and BBs were down once coming back. He pitched deeper into games and got more ground balls after getting called up. While Lannan is by no means an ace, he deserves the number 3 or 4 spot in the rotation next year and hopefully he can carry the momentum from this season into the start of next season.
Playing the Atlanta Braves: 10-8 against the Braves this year? Gotta love it.
Bob Carpenter: Just a classy guy, and the best play-by-play announcer I have ever listened to. Also gets kudos for dealing with Dibble and Ray Knight, which is no small feat.
Alberto Gonzalez: Love him defensively. He is a stud in the infield and if he is the 25th player on our team, I am happy with that. Not the worst hitter in the world either. Not a good hitter, but if he can hit .260 off the bench and play stellar defense he is more than worth a roster spot for 2011, simply due to his glove.
Jason Marquis and Chein Ming-Wang: JOKING
Part II to come at some point in the future.
-Nick
Monday, August 30, 2010
Welcome
Hello, my name is Nick Donohue and I am a proud Washington Nationals fan. I follow the team religiously on both the major and minor league levels, and I hope to bring you a different and unique perspective on my favorite sports team. Enjoy!
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