End of season thoughts, part I

Now that the season is over, I guess the time is ripe for my first real post. At first glance, a 69-93 win-loss record doesn't look so hot. But anytime a team improves 10 games from the prior season, progress was certainly made. And if the Nats can improve 10 games a year, they will be World Series bound in no time (if only it were that easy). But with the season over, and with me being forever the optimist, I first wanted to take an in-depth look at what went right for the Nats in 2010:

Ryan Zimmerman: What else is there to say? Easily the best 3B in all of baseball, and sadly not enough respect him. Zim finished the season 3rd in the NL in WAR, but he was leading until he was shut down with the rib injury the last week or so. Finished with a superb .899 OPS and a career high .307 batting average. Not to mention that he played the best defense in all of baseball. While the 25 home runs were down a bit from last year, he did play 15 less games due to the early hamstring injury and the rib injury at the end of the year. The argument could be made that Zimmerman had one of the most underrated seasons of all time, and Nationals fans should take great pride in their 3B. Ignore the RBI totals because he would have had 150 if the Nats had any semblance of decent 1-2 hitters, and he got unlucky with a huge number of solo HRs. If he doesn't win the Gold Glove again it would be a travesty (17.3 Ultimate Zone Rating), and he certainly deserves a top-3 finish in the MVP voting (although it won't happen). And to think he didn't even make the All-Star game. Zimmerman continues to be a terrific player and the main reason I watch the number of games that I do.

Livan Hernandez: Who knew that the marquee free agent pick-up for the Nats would be Livo? The ageless wonder managed over 210 solid innings this year, and was a very dependable starter. His 3.66 ERA was about a run and a half less than I anticipated, and his slow curve ball was fun for everyone. While the strikeout numbers weren't great and nobody is counting on a repeat of 2010 for next season, Livan absolutely deserved another run in the rotation and should be a solid, if unspectacular, number 5 for the Nats next season.

Stephen Strasburg: Injury aside, he lifted the franchise to new and incredible heights for a good part of the summer. He showed 4 plus pitches and showed tremendous stuff and a great feel for pitching. It was almost like watching Danny Almonte pitching against 11 and 12 year olds when he made his debut against the Pirates (but for all we know, he may have been facing the little league team from Pittsburgh). He somehow managed to finish second out of Nats starting pitchers in K's, even though he started a mere 12 games. With 12.18 K/9 and an absolutely silly K/BB ratio of 5.4:1, Nationals fans have a lot of great memories of Strasmania. He put butts in the seats and gave the Nats the most positive press in their short history. And while the arm injury was devastating, it could have been worse. People compare his motion to Prior's all the time, but Prior had shoulder problems. Shoulder problems are much much much worse than elbow problems. In the grand scheme of things, a bunch of guys have had TJ surgery. While nothing is guaranteed, and it generally takes more than 12-18 months to really get back (look at Liriano, who took 3-4 years to become dominant again), the prognosis is not as bad as it could have been and National's fans have reasons to feel okay. Hopefully we will be seeing him at the end of 2011 better than ever.

Adam Dunn: Dunn has to be considered one of the best left-handed bats in baseball. Defense aside, the guy can rake. Yeah he strikes out a bunch, but he gets on base frequently and has prodigious power. The move to 1B didn't turn out half-bad, and although he upped Zim and Desi's error total by a bunch due to an inability to scoop balls in the dirt, he didn't look as bad as most anticipated. And he didn't look nearly as bad as he did in the outfield. In fact, let me do a quick comparison for you:
Player A- .260/.356/.536, 38 HR, 199 SOs, 77 BBs, UZR -3.4 (age 30)
Player B- .276/.353/.505, 31 HR, 157 SOs, 59BBs,  UZR -11.7 (age 30)
Player A is Adam Dunn from 2010 and Player B is Ryan Howard from 2010. While Howard gets the huge amounts of press for his wonderful RBI total (when even Justin Maxwell hitting clean-up in that lineup would have 100 RBIs) and the huge 25 million dollar per year extension, is he that much better than Dunn? I would argue no, and I would argue that Dunn absolutely warrants a 3 year deal worth 45 million. I would also argue that keeping Zim after his current contract expires is a huge concern, and Zim has publicly stated many times that he wants to see Dunn stick around. Considering we spent (or flushed down the toilet) 7.5 million per year on Jason "no outs" Marquis, we can find 15 a year for Dunn for 3 years. Unless we plan on signing Lee or Crawford, we have to do something to give Zim hope for 2011, and bringing back Dunn would really help that.

Josh Willingham pre-injury: Before the Hammer went down with that knee injury, the Nationals had one of the best 3-4-5 in baseball. Scoff all you want, but at the beginning of the season not many teams could match up with us at those 3 spots of the lineup. Sadly the 1-2 and 6-8 hitters brought almost nothing to the table while the big 3 were tearing it up. Willingham was above average in LF defensively, a great number 5 hitter, and a decent base-runner. I was very happy to see us hold onto him at the trade deadline, and hopefully he will be back healthy for the entire 2011 season and provide a nice 25 home run season, with a continued ability to get on base seemingly at will.

The Entire Nat's bullpen (minus Bruney): Storen, Clippard, Burnett, and of course Capps were all reliable and excellent relievers for the team all season long. Joel Peralta, Doug Slaten and Collin Balester also had great years and really proved themselves to the team. And after Miggy's spot start for Stras against the Braves, who could ever say anything bad about him? What makes our bullpen even more impressive is the sheer amount of innings pitched. When only one or two starters can consistently give 6 innings, that puts quite the burden on the 'pen. Although there is great potential for regression (especially for guys like Peralta and Slaten), the bullpen figures to be a strength for next season.

Capps for Ramos: Really? When I heard the Nats traded Capps, I remember thinking, "Please let the Twins be dumb enough to give us Ramos." And they did. What a tremendous deal for the Nats. You are telling me we can give ourselves a cheap starting catcher for the next 4-6 years for a closer that was non-tendered by the Pirates this offseason? An unbelievably shrewd move by Rizzo, and a blatant overvaluing of saves by the Twins. Ramos has shown good power potential and looks like a stud in the making. I know Derek Norris is waiting in the wings, but the Ramos move was a no-brainer and gives us tremendous amounts of flexibility going forward. Maybe (I am not saying I want for this to happen) we could move Norris to 1B if we decide to not resign Dunn. All I know is that trading a closer for a young catcher that can hit is an easy decision to make, and a move that the Nats should look back on very favorably. Capps was a wonderful person and player for the 1st half and it was fun to have him around, but it will be better to have Ramos for the next 6 years. Another underrated aspect of this trade would be that Wil Nieves has about 4 ABs since Ramos was called up, which is a sigh of relief for everyone.

Michael Morse: Lefty killer. Morse came out of nowhere this season. Count me among those who thought early in the season that Morse was no good and didn't warrant a spot over Maxwell (that's an embarrassing sentence to write). But Morse turned out to be a terrific right handed batter and power threat throughout the season. Maybe this season was a bit flukish and maybe he can't play much defense, but the power numbers are hard to ignore and he swung a great bat for the Nats all year. At the very least he should make a terrific platoon player, and with greater plate discipline he could conceivably be a better than average to average starter (although I would not bank on it).

Nationals 2010 draft: Potentially (outisde of Zim/Stras) the most important section on this list. Yeah the Harper pick/sign was great, but that was a no-brainer and everyone knew the deal was going to get done. Signing 1st round talent A.J. Cole away from The U in the 4th round was the highlight of the draft for me. Cole projects to be a front-line starter and was worth every penny of his 2 million. We even signed Vandy recruit and 12th round selection Robbie Ray. Not to mention Sammy Solis in the 2nd round. The Nats had arguably the best draft of any team, and really positioned themselves well for 3-5 years from now when these kids are coming up. Building through the draft is incredibly important, and the Nats have nailed the first Bowden-free drafts. A lot of upside in the class of 2010, and the future appears very bright.

Jordan Zimmermann's right arm: When Zimm went down last year with the dreaded forearm tightness and needed TJ, I was crushed. He had ace potential and was striking out guys like crazy. And our rotation last year (and this year) certainly needed him out there every 5th day. But it was great to see him come back so quickly, and absolutely dominate minor league ball. While his stretch in the majors wasn't quite as successful, his start in Florida against the Marlins was in my opinion the best non-Strasburg start all year. He carved up Florida and struck out 9 in 6 IP on only 96 pitches. Zimm is a no doubter to be our 2011 opening day starter, and figures to make an awesome 1-2 punch with Stras for years to come. Expect better numbers in the coming years.

Ian Desmond/Danny Espinosa: I'll start with Desi. While he had a below average year defensively (-7.8 UZR), defensive metrics generally have to accumulate over 2 or 3 years before definitive statements can be made. That may be rationalization, but Des sure has tantalizing defensive potential at SS and he is still figuring it out. I estimate about 20 of his errors were either due to poor decisions (throwing a ball to first that he should have eaten) or Adam Dunn. After Guz, seeing a young Des run around and play SS was pretty fun to watch, and it was enjoyable to watch him grow throughout the year. He has some pop in his bat and could one day be a 15-20 HR guy. However, he needs to learn some plate discipline. It's nice to hit .269 as a rookie, but not if you are only getting on base at a .308 clip. I can't even describe how many times I watched him strike out on absolutely terrible pitchers. He seemed to walk a bit more after the all star break, but he has to learn to get on base more if he really wants to be a building block for this team. As for Espinosa, the kid can play some second base. Wow. Talk about a defensive upgrade over Kennedy and Guz (or, the poo-poo platter if you would prefer). He also has a tremendous amount of power in for a switch hitting 2B, and figures to be our starting second basemen next year. He still needs to show a bit more patience and a smarter approach with 2 strikes. I attribute his big SO numbers to a small sample size and a desire to do too much. Best case for Espy in the next few years would be a gold glove caliber 2B who can give us consistent 20-20 seasons and a .350 OBP once he learns some plate discipline, but don't expect that until 2012 or 2013 if at all. All in all, we seem to have a solid and cheap DP combo for the next few years, and I expect big jumps from both of these players next year.

John Lannan after his stint in AA: Lannan looked like a new pitcher after his mid-season demotion. While there will always be naysayers for pitchers like Lannan, there is no doubt his Ks were up and BBs were down once coming back. He pitched deeper into games and got more ground balls after getting called up. While Lannan is by no means an ace, he deserves the number 3 or 4 spot in the rotation next year and hopefully he can carry the momentum from this season into the start of next season.

Playing the Atlanta Braves: 10-8 against the Braves this year? Gotta love it.

Bob Carpenter: Just a classy guy, and the best play-by-play announcer I have ever listened to. Also gets kudos for dealing with Dibble and Ray Knight, which is no small feat.

Alberto Gonzalez: Love him defensively. He is a stud in the infield and if he is the 25th player on our team, I am happy with that. Not the worst hitter in the world either. Not a good hitter, but if he can hit .260 off the bench and play stellar defense he is more than worth a roster spot for 2011, simply due to his glove.

Jason Marquis and Chein Ming-Wang: JOKING

Part II to come at some point in the future.

-Nick

Welcome

Hello, my name is Nick Donohue and I am a proud Washington Nationals fan. I follow the team religiously on both the major and minor league levels, and I hope to bring you a different and unique perspective on my favorite sports team. Enjoy!